Currency Portfolio Management: 10 items to prove we are in a recession

After hovering above 50 in recent months, the Chicago ISM number dropped sharply to 44.5 in February, notching its lowest reading since December 2001 and coming in well below expectations. This brings this survey in line with the disastrous services survey of last month.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for the United States came in at 70.8. This is the lowest reading for the index in 16 years.
"The New York City Purchasing Manager's Survey fell for the second consecutive month to 427.7 in February. The current conditions index fell to 43.4, down from 47.9 in January. The six-month outlook index was below 50 for the second consecutive month for the first time in the survey's history; at 47.5 it was down from 70 in February of 2007. The worsening conditions reflect rising prices coupled with slower job growth and layoffs in financial services, as well as tightening credit conditions and higher unemployment." (economy.com)
The dollar hit an all-time low against the euro and fell this week against nearly every currency in the world, except Zimbabwe's. And with inflation running there at 100,000%, I think we will have at least one currency against which we will stay strong. As an aside, and as I wrote in my annual forecast, I think we are seeing a top forming on the dollar against the euro over the next few months, but the dollar will continue to fall against Asian currencies.
Oil is over $101 a barrel, and rising energy prices act as a tax on consumers, who have less available to spend on other items To add insult to injury, much of that money is sent to foreign countries that are hostile to the US. Of course, we should be grateful that some of the countries recycle those dollars back to the US, buying large positions in our major banks and keeping them from going bankrupt.
Home prices continue to fall and home construction is slowing dramatically, even while the available supply of new homes rises to all-time high. Foreclosures are running at record levels and rising everywhere. And everywhere there are "foreclosure tours" as real estate agents charter buses to take prospective buyers to homes which can be bought very cheaply. The number of vacant homes is now over 2,000,000. There is no sign of a bottom in the housing markets. The inventory of unsold homes continues to rise, and is now at almost a 10-month supply.
Commercial real estate construction has held up well, but there are clear signs this is about to come to an end, as lending for commercial real estate is becoming harder to get. Indexes which track commercial real estate are softening and commercial real estate credit default swap prices are soaring. Look at the next chart. It shows that prices for credit default swaps have almost tripled in the last four months for highly rated investment-grade commercial paper. I can't do the math quickly, but the back-of-my-napkin analysis of CDS rates for the lowest-quality commercial paper (junk bond levels) suggests default rates approaching 50%. Only in a major depression of biblical proportions could we expect to see something like that. But it means the securitization market for commercial mortgages is drying up, which means available capital for new construction is going to be much harder to find. This is going to be a drag on growth in the coming quarters.

Personal income for the average US consumer rose by the same amount as inflation, around 0.4%, and with rising energy and food costs (which we will look at later) it is no wonder that retail sales are down and falling. The savings rate is still negative, which means consumers are using savings to maintain their consumption.
Jobless claims continue to climb toward recessionary levels. Remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Jobs are one of the last things to fall in a recession, as employers are reluctant to cut back but then begin to do so more rapidly as it becomes clear we are in a recession and not just a temporary slowdown.
The index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to plunge, and is not far away from levels last seen in 2001. Such a drop by the LEI has always been accompanied by a recession.

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